Associated Press - 01.31.2004

 

 

 

 

Washington Post

Kazakhstan Politics Could Turn Dynastic

By BAGILA BUKHARBAYEVA

The Associated Press

ALMATY, Kazakhstan - She's a media mogul, has a doctorate in political science and learned to sing opera in secret because her father - Kazakhstan's president - disapproved.

Now, Dariga Nazarbayeva's ambitions have led her to form a new political party, setting off speculation she is grooming herself for what could be the second dynastic succession in the countries that emerged from the disintegration of the Soviet Union.

It has already happened in Azerbaijan, and what unfolds in Kazakhstan, a resource-rich giant four times bigger than Texas, could influence succession in its four smaller Central Asian neighbors.

Nazarbayeva's party - Asar, or All Together - held its first party congress Saturday in Almaty, where nearly 700 delegates from across the country gathered at the National Opera House decorated with the party's red and white banners.

In a buoyant and confident address to the congress, Nazarbayeva repeated her earlier claim that her party would win half of Parliament in fall elections.

"It's a bold and ambitious statement," she said. "But why create a party, if you don't have ambitious aims?"

On Tuesday, before getting a single member into parliament, Asar announced it had formed its own parliamentary faction with 10 sympathetic independents. The party has said its ranks more than doubled since its formal registration in December, from 77,000 to 170,000.

Nazarbayeva has said she won't seek a parliamentary seat herself and denies her party is a launchpad for her to succeed her father, Nursultan Nazarbayev.

On Saturday, Nazarbayeva said she was confident her father would win another seven-year term in the next elections in 2006. But she added: "In 10 years, he will himself chose his own successor."

Nazarbayeva said Asar's current priorities were to press Parliament to remove articles from bills under debate that would restrict media freedom and threaten transparency of the election process.

The president didn't attend the congress, but in a greeting read by the head of the administration he wished Asar "a long and successful political life."

Alikhan Baimenov, co-chairman of the opposition Ak Zhol party, doesn't see a "high probability" of the 40-year-old Nazarbayeva becoming president. But he noted "she's just only entered political stage. We shall see."

Petr Svoik, head of another opposition party, Democratic Choice of Kazakhstan, says "It will take more calculation and complicated maneuvering" to make a dynasty happen here because Kazakhstan has a multiparty system and experienced politicians.

But he believes the Nazarbayevs are "definitely" preparing a family succession.

Such speculation is growing in the region as its longtime leaders get older and increasingly resistant to democratization. Most are former Communist bosses who have clung to power through controversial constitutional changes or questionable votes.

Talk of dynasties was fueled when Azerbaijan, a Caucasus state with close ties to Central Asia, elected President Geidar Aliev's son as his successor in October.

In Uzbekistan, rumors of dynastic politics are so rife that officials had to deny the president's daughter had married the foreign minister to keep the presidency in the family. In another Central Asian republic, Kyrgyzstan, rumor has it that the place is actually run by the president's wife, and that she wants his job.

All this gossip and speculation, if nothing else, is testimony to the secretive, clannish politics in these former Communist states, whose democracies are young and struggling for credibility.

Kazakhstan's Nazarbayev, 63, came to power in 1989 as the country's Communist leader. Since the 1991 Soviet collapse, he has twice been elected president and also extended his term in a referendum.

He has no known health problems and enjoys the support of many Kazakhs who credit him for successful market reforms. He is eligible to run for another seven-year term in 2006.

But the opposition has grown more active and Nazarbayev has begun to show signs of jitteriness, jailing two opposition leaders and cracking down on opposition media.

Sergei Duvanov, an opposition activist, said Nazarbayeva needs her new Asar party to make her political name and be ready to take power.

"Aliev's example has shown that one needs a backup, who can take over when it's needed," he said.

The party's moves get generous coverage. The president's daughter heads Khabar, Kazakhstan's biggest media group, and in 10 years has turned a mediocre state TV channel into the country's most influential. She is an advocate for media freedom as leader of the Congress of Journalists of Kazakhstan.

Her party calls itself centrist and favors strong presidential rule under a democratic system. Colleagues praise her organizational skills and recruiting of competent people to further her goals.

Nazarbayeva studied history and political science at Moscow State University. She speaks Kazakh, Russian, English and Italian.

Trained for years as a mezzo-soprano, she gave her first solo concert at Almaty's National Opera House in 2001, performing pieces by Liszt, Offenbach and others. Profits from the concert went to World War II veterans.