Washington Post - 02.19.2002

The Washington Post

Securing Central Asia

The American interest in an expanding engagement with the Muslim states of Central Asia is broader than the military bases those countries are supplying to U.S. forces. In the 10 years since gaining independence from the Soviet Union, the five republics stretching from China to the Caspian Sea -- Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan -- have themselves become a sinkhole of economic failure and political repression and, consequently, a growing source of Islamic extremism. Thanks to their proximity to Afghanistan, these countries now are drawing money and attention from the Bush administration that, if directed in the right way, could help save them from becoming one of the crisis zones of the 21st century. For that to happen, however, the United States needs to carefully balance its long-term security interests in the region with its short-term need for bases.

Senior administration officials say they understand this challenge. In a press briefing last week, the State Department's assistant secretary for European and Eurasian Affairs, Elizabeth Jones, described a recent tour through the five republics in which, she said, she underlined to the Central Asian rulers that "if you want to have the kind of security that we're talking about, we have to talk in terms of specific improvements in human rights activities . . . and expanding democratic processes." She said she warned rulers such as Islam Karimov of Uzbekistan that "without that, you are simply creating a generation of people who are so disaffected that they become easy targets for extremist organizations."

The message is exactly right; the problem is how to make it stick. Mr. Karimov's Uzbekistan, a nation that is in many ways the linchpin of the region, encapsulates the challenge. Since Sept. 11, Mr. Karimov has worked hard to make himself indispensable to the U.S. military campaign in Afghanistan, providing an air base for U.S. planes; in return, the Bush administration proposes to triple aid to his country, to $150 million. But Mr. Karimov may also be the greatest single threat to long-term U.S. security in Central Asia. His brutal and indiscriminate repression of Muslims in his country has fueled rather than wiped out Uzbek extremist movements, while his statist economic policy has steadily increased the country's isolation and impoverishment.

Even as the American military presence has steadily expanded, Ms. Jones and Secretary of State Colin Powell have pressed Mr. Karimov for a series of modest political and economic reforms. But the State Department, unlike the Pentagon, seems to have made little headway. Mr. Karimov staged a manifestly bogus referendum during Ms. Jones's visit to extend his term in office; the sole concession he offered -- access by the Red Cross to Uzbek jails -- also was promised a year ago, but never delivered. So far, he has not accepted U.S. proposals that he allow the United Nations rapporteur on torture to visit his country and that he grant legal registration to independent Uzbek human rights organizations.

Ms. Jones was asked what consequence Mr. Karimov might suffer for rejecting these steps. She answered that U.S. officials would be "in their office, in their face, all the time," but would not cut off aid that "goes to democracy and human rights groups." In fact, it seems unlikely that Mr. Karimov, a dictator bred in the Soviet mold, would be moved by either tactic. U.S. leverage lies in the military relationship, the basing of U.S. troops and planes that Mr. Karimov covets -- and that he no doubt believes would never be sacrificed by Washington on human rights grounds. For just that reason, the Bush administration must be prepared to link the continuance of the military relationship to democratic change, both in Uzbekistan and in the other states of Central Asia. As useful as the bases may be for current operations in Afghanistan, a larger U.S. interest lies in acting now to ensure that Central Asia does not become the next Afghanistan.