Los Angeles Times - 02.21.2002

 

The Los Angeles Times

The U.S. Needs Russia to Help Contain Iran

By BRENDA SHAFFER

Brenda Shaffer, research director at the Caspian studies program at Harvard University, is the author of "Partners in Need: the Strategic Relationship of Russia and Iran" (The Washington Institute for Near East Policy).

President Bush didn't leave much room for interpretation when he declared Iran a part of an "axis of evil." What wasn't clear was whether the U.S. is willing to go beyond tough rhetoric and take concrete steps to stop Iran from obtaining weapons of mass destruction.

One of the ways for the United States to prevent Tehran from developing these weapons is for Washington to address one of the sources of Iran's proliferation advances: Russia. Over the past decade, various government ministries and defense companies in Russia have contributed significantly to Iran's advancement toward acquisition of these weapons.

Washington is beginning to forge a new strategic framework for its relations with Moscow. This new deal should require that Russia curtail its cooperation with Iran in areas that could enhance Tehran's ability to acquire weapons of mass destruction. For the U.S. to succeed on this front, it must understand the importance that Russia attaches to its relations with Iran and offer significant trade-offs that will help Moscow. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, a momentous opportunity emerged for U.S.-Russia cooperation. There are different explanations as to which side is more at fault for the failure of this partnership to develop. It is clear that both failed to demonstrate significant consideration for the other's security needs and continued to interact in a competitive manner.

American policymakers have been upset with Russia's cooperation with Iran in areas that help Tehran acquire nuclear weapons. Russian leaders have been disappointed by Washington's promotion of the expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization into Eastern Europe and its decision to unilaterally pursue a national missile defense system.

However, it is now time for a new and mutually beneficial strategic deal between Russia and the U.S. An important component would be the issue of proliferation in Iran.

In the last 11/2 years, Russia has shown signs that it recognizes that it has some common interests with the U.S. on energy and security issues. Russia's refusal in November to cut back its oil production in accordance with OPEC demands has prevented the world economy from plummeting deeper into recession. In addition, Russia has removed its active opposition to the building of the Baku-Ceyhan pipeline for transport of Caspian oil.

On security issues, not only has Moscow mobilized full-fledged support for the war on terrorism, it has permitted an extensive U.S. military presence in Central Asia. The Russian government also has made efforts to establish export controls to rein in some of the proliferation activities of Russian companies.

Russia, however, has not been willing to compromise its cooperation with Iran. Moscow views its neighbor Iran as an important partner in maintaining stability in the Caucasus and Central Asia, and Tehran plays the leading role in minimizing Muslim backlash against Moscow for its military campaigns in Chechnya. Iran and Moscow also see each other as important "poles" in maintaining a multi-polar international system and preventing U.S. hegemony. Thus, Moscow will be reluctant to endanger its relations with Iran, especially if it appears that Russia is reacting to U.S. pressure.

But a strategic reformation that includes concessions by Washington on issues of the highest order that affect Russian national security--such as missile defense and further expansion of NATO--ultimately could lead to an important change in the nature of Moscow's cooperation with Iran.

As part of a new deal with Russia, the U.S. should focus on preventing the transfer of a limited number of sensitive items that could contribute most seriously to the advancement of Iran's nuclear weapons programs. The U.S. should not oppose all military cooperation between Russia and Iran, such as pacts on conventional weapons. The U.S. should not do anything to weaken political relations between Iran and Russia, and instead focus only on proliferation issues. Washington would benefit from initiating quiet diplomacy with Russian President Vladimir V. Putin on the issue of Iran, without making it seem like a Russian concession to U.S. demands.

Bush has signaled to the world that he wants to get tough with those who dabble with weapons of mass destruction. The administration now needs to go beyond words and threats and work intelligently with Russia to contain Iran's drive for such weapons.