Issue Brief - 03.27.2002

 

 

Issue Brief:  
The March 31 Ukrainian Elections  

Election Day 
Implications 
Leading Parties and Blocs 
Past Elections 
Election Law 
Campaign Irregularities 
International Dynamics 
Jewish Community

The March 31 Ukrainian elections are being called a watershed event in the country’s development.  However, despite a marked shift in electoral support from the Communist Party to more centrist groups such as frontrunner “Our Ukraine” (Nash Ukraina), local and international observers do not expect a reform bloc to emerge in the next Verkhovna Rada (Parliament) with the ability to reverse the flow of power toward the executive branch, even if the elections are entirely transparent.

Election Day

Rada and local council elections will be held March 31, 2002.  Half of the 450 seats of the unicameral legislature will be elected through proportional representation of the leading parties among the 127 registered to run in the election.  The remaining 225 seats will be filled by the winners of elections in single-mandate districts (170,000 voters in each).  

Implications

These elections will mark the legal end of President Leonid Kuchma’s second term in office, and will therefore determine the key political players in the next Presidential election.  Of more immediate significance, the new Rada will decide whether to continue the expansion of presidential power or to reverse this trend in favor of a more democratic balance of executive and legislative authorities.

Leading Parties and Blocs

Thirty-three parties and blocs successfully registered with the Central Election Commission, though a party must achieve a minimum four percent of the total vote to qualify for representation in the Rada.

Several leading contenders in this year’s election have either declared outright support for the Kuchma administration or are known to be closely allied with the President.  “For Unity” (Za Edu), the party led by the head of the presidential administration, Volodymyr Lytvyn, was explicitly endorsed by Kuchma.  The Social Democratic Party (SDPU), Communist Party, “Apple” (Yabloko), the Green Party and “Women for the Future” all have strong ties to the current administration.  The elections will also reflect the degree of public outrage over Kuchma’s alleged involvement in the September 2000 disappearance and death of reporter Georgii Gongadze, a scandal that generated mass protests before authorities forcibly ended them in March 2001.

Former Prime Minister Viktor Yushchenko, Ukraine’s most popular politician, heads “Our Ukraine” and is slated to run in the next presidential election.  Our Ukraine, with a pro-reform and pro-Western platform, has not declared its opposition to Kuchma.  If the election follows the public opinion polls, it is likely that Yushchenko will again become Prime Minister.   

Julia Tymoshchenko heads a self-titled bloc that has openly declared its opposition to Kuchma, and the former Deputy Prime Minister has been in confrontation with leading business interests and politicians due in part to her role in energy sector reform. 

Both Yushchenko and Tymoschenko’s blocs want close cooperation with the European Union (EU) and NATO.

According to a variety of independent opinion polls from March 7-13, the top six contenders (in rough order) are “Our Ukraine,” the Communist Party, SDPU, “For a United Ukraine,” the Green Party, “Women for the Future,” and the Tymoshchenko bloc.  Although it may not achieve the electoral threshold required to join the Rada, the new “Winter Crop Generation Party” reflects a young generation of more Western-oriented and democratically-minded Ukrainians.

Past Elections  

Political Trends:

No one party or bloc has dominated Ukraine’s political arena in the past decade, and parties in the center and center-right have begun to gain a foothold.  The dynamics of the electorate are also shifting, as the East-West divide becomes less important in the face of a growing rift between the urban and rural populations. 

Conduct of Elections:

Parliamentary and presidential elections in the decade since independence from the USSR have cast Ukraine as one of the more Westernized, reform-minded successor states.  However, widespread violations of election law and administration intimidation of the opposition clouded the elections of 1998 (parliament), 1999 (president), and the referendum of 2000, which election observers and foreign governments regarded as neither entirely free nor fair.

In 1996, President Kuchma dissolved the Ukrainian constitution to extend his term to 2001, and won reelection that year.   

Election Law   

Current election law provides all parties and blocs equal access to television and print media exposure, and all campaigns are publicly funded.  Use of administration resources or facilities for campaigning is forbidden, and local election commissions must include representatives of parties currently represented in government.  Campaign funding is limited and campaign time, including registration, is limited to 90 days.  Candidates are not protected from administrative or criminal prosecution during this period. 

Only international observers will be allowed to monitor the election in the polling stations.   

Campaign Irregularities

The Committee of Voters of Ukraine (CVU), a nonpartisan local monitoring group, has reported complaints filed by citizens during the campaign period.  The complaints, usually against “For a United Ukraine” and other pro-Kuchma groups, frequently charge abuse of the provisions granting equal air-time and equal display areas in public places, and prohibiting use of administration resources.  The administration has reportedly ordered all local officials to support pro-Kuchma parties, and early indications suggest the election commissions are loyal to local administrations.  Several parties have openly used bribes to win voter support. 

International Dynamics

Russia:

Russia has played a part in past elections, and is asserting its influence in the 2002 election campaign.  Former Russian Prime Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin, now Ambassador to Ukraine, made a March 21 statement disparaging frontrunner Victor Yushchenko’s “Our Ukraine” bloc.  On March 22, Chernomyrdin criticized the recent U.S. House of Representatives Resolution that called for a free and fair election in Ukraine. 

Europe and United States:

The United States has joined with the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) and other international bodies in praising improvements to the election law while also criticizing the Ukrainian administration for allowing, if not authorizing, numerous serious violations of that law, including intimidation and violence against opposition parties and blocs.   

On March 20, both the U.S. House and Senate passed Resolutions calling for a ‘free and fair election in Ukraine.’ [see H. Res 339, S. Res 205]

Jewish Community 

There have been no reported incidents of anti-Semitism, and no party or candidate has appealed specifically to the Jewish community.  The Jewish community has not endorsed any party or bloc over another. 

NCSJ has met in Washington with several candidates from the competing parties, including former Prime Minister Viktor Yushchenko.  Given President Kuchma’s written commitments to President Bush, the Jewish community is hopeful the new Rada will pass a revised religion law which authorizes the return of communal properties seized during the Soviet era. 

– Prepared by Sarah Hutchison, NCSJ Program Assistant