Washington Post - 09.19.2001

 

Washington Post

Will Russia Join the War of the West?


By Masha Lipman

MOSCOW -- Within hours after the horrible terrorist attack on the United States, President Vladimir Putin addressed his nation on television. He said that this tragedy goes beyond national borders and referred to it as a challenge to "civilized humankind." "We support you," was his message to the American people.

So has Russia indeed decided, in the face of the horror that befell America, to discard its recent antagonism to the United States and join the anti-terrorist effort?

Statements during the past few days by some other high-ranking officials suggest that such a decision, if it is taken, will not be easy. Chief of General Staff Anatoly Kvashnin said it is hardly likely that the Russian army would take part in retaliatory acts planned by the United States. The minister of defense, Sergei Ivanov, said there were "absolutely no grounds, not even for hypothetical suggestions," that NATO military forces might be deployed on the territory of the Commonwealth of Independent States. Nor did either of them say Russia is ready for other forms of cooperation.

Talk of anti-terrorist cooperation with the United States has also been rare among Russian politicians. From people in the street to TV talk shows and political discussions, the compassion for the thousands killed is mixed with less sympathetic sentiments: that America has itself to blame for the tragedy, that it has been asking for it by imposing its will upon, and using violence against, other nations. In a Moscow poll conducted just after the terrorist attack, one-third of the Muscovites said America had gotten what it had deserved. Those polled were split almost evenly on whether Russia should support the U.S. retaliatory operation against the extremists.

In recent years Russia's loyalties have been divided between the new partners acquired in the course of its post-Communist history and the old allies inherited from the Soviet Union. Putin has repeatedly stressed the need for Russia to integrate with the Western world, but he has not joined the Western condemnation of the so-called rogue regimes. He has shown unprecedented hospitality to North Korea's dictator and has not stopped arms deals with Iran in spite of numerous protests from the United States.

Russia's contradictory foreign policy is the reflection of a conflict of domestic interests. It may best be described as a clash between advocates of social and economic progress and die-hard conservatives, or as antagonism between Westernizers and anti-Westerners.

The underlying economic interest may be even more important than the ideological difference. Arms deals with such countries as Iran and North Korea may not account for a significant part of the Russian budget, but they are a good source of income for big groups in the Russian military-industrial complex -- groups that have numerous clients and sympathizers among conservatives in the Duma, foreign-policy-makers and the military establishment.

Siding with the West -- joining the anti-terrorist coalition being mustered by the United States -- would most likely prove beneficial for Putin's government, because the West would then lose moral grounds to criticize the Russian operation in Chechnya. Putin, who has spent almost two years vehemently defending his atrocious war in Chechnya against human-rights groups and other international organizations, would feel vindicated. He might also expect that the United States would get tougher on Georgia, which tends to be fairly soft on the Chechen fighters taking refuge on its territory. And of course Russia would benefit economically from closer cooperation with "civilized humankind."

But to make the pro-Western choice would mean to challenge -- or reshape -- public opinion and resolve the deep domestic conflict by infringing on powerful interests. Up until now Putin has generally put up with this conflict, either because the challenge seems too big or because he himself is torn just as is his political elites. Maybe he'll show more determination this time. At the end of last week he again strongly condemned the terrorist attack and likened it to Nazi crimes. This unequivocal parallel with the worst evil of the 20th century might serve as a cautionary message to those in the Russian political establishment who have mixed feelings about the terror attack of Sept. 11.

Masha Lipman, a Russian journalist, writes a monthly column for The Post.