RFE/RL - 09.20.2001

 

Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty

END NOTE

Russian Politicians Reposition Themselves in Wake of Attack On U.S.

By Julie A. Corwin

Although Russian Economic Development and Trade Minister German Gref promised that the terrorist attacks on the U.S. would have no effect on the Russian economy and Security Council Secretary Vladimir Rushailo said that no changes -- even in Russia's foreign policy -- should be expected, don't believe them.

President Vladimir Putin was among the first foreign leaders to extend his condolences to the American people, and the reverberations of the event rippled just as quickly through the Moscow political scene in a multitude of different directions, affecting not just Russian national security policy but also domestic economic and political policies.

The list of policies that may now undergo review is a long one. Even before the attacks, it was already clear that the draft 2002 budget's basic parameters would face challenges from the State Duma. But now, advocates for higher defense and security spending have new ammunition. And those groups supporting a greater Russian activism internationally have found an impetus for a new push. The military campaign in Chechnya may intensify, as Union of Rightist Forces Duma (SPS) faction leader Boris Nemtsov has abruptly abandoned his quest for a negotiated peace in Chechnya.

With regard to next year's budget, Duma Defense Committee Chairman (People's Deputy) Andrei Nikolaev announced on 17 September that his committee will insist on increased expenditures for defense spending. While this was likely to happen anyway -- Nikolaev pleaded for higher defense spending last year -- he will now have more allies in his quest. On 18 September, Duma deputy speaker (Unity) Lyubov Sliska also called for higher defense spending, and Duma speaker Gennadii Seleznev spoke in favor of increasing funds for combating terrorism. Russian intelligence services can also more convincingly make their own cases for greater resources in light of the failure of their U.S. counterparts to predict or prevent the attacks. As Aleksandr Zdanovich, the head of the Assistance Programs Directorate of the Federal Security Service, noted on 13 September, "There is an old axiom, you know: truly professional secret services prevent crimes, and all the others investigate them after the fact." The implicit argument is that intelligence is not something worth skimping on.

The oil price spike following the attacks may also benefit those seeking higher defense expenditures. In addition, many analysts believe that the opening of a U.S. bombing campaign would likely return prices to the high levels recorded last week. But even without the aid of higher crude prices, the Duma's Budget Committee was already prepared to argue with the government over the draft budget's key parameters. Committee experts believe that Russian GDP in 2002 will be 400 billion rubles higher than the cabinet's figures indicate -- that is, 11 trillion rubles versus 10.6 trillion. So as has been done in the past, the government may be able "find" additional money for defense by redoing its calculations. Another potential source of cash may be money set aside for education and court reforms. Although deemed high priority, these reforms are multiyear projects, which cabinet ministers, faced with what seem like more immediate pressing problems, may decide to postpone one more year.

A more general consequence of the events of 11 September may be the heightened awareness among Russian policymakers and public of the tight linkage between the fortunes of the Russian economy and that of the U.S. "Izvestiya" noted on 15 September that "the crash of the dollar could practically destroy our financial system." While this is probably an overstatement, it is a fact that Russian Central Bank head Viktor Gerashchenko along with other economic policymakers across Russia spent a considerable amount of time on 11 and 12 September talking up the dollar.

In the sphere of foreign policy, Russian policymakers adopted a kind of "told you so" stance toward the 11 September events, calling attention to President Putin's previous calls for world states to unite against terrorism. Likewise, opponents of the U.S. plans to develop a missile defense system emphasized the wisdom of their opposition to that plan, since the system would not have been able to prevent the attack on the World Trade Center. At the same time, other Russian policymakers saw new opportunities for Russia resulting from the U.S.'s inevitable reconcentration of its resources on combating terrorism. Liberal Democratic Party of Russia leader Vladimir Zhirinovsky suggested that Russia can now act as a gendarme for Europe.

The United States's new focus on terrorism is also expected to give the Kremlin more latitude in resolving the conflict in Chechnya. Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov declared on 13 September that he hopes the world will now understand what Russia has been up against in Chechnya. And news reports in Russian media have trumpeted alleged links between Chechen military commanders Shamil Basaev and Khattab and international terrorist Osama bin Laden. Sensing a shift in the public's mood, SPS leader Nemtsov revised his recent position calling for negotiations with Chechen leaders, telling "Moskovskii komsomolets" on 13 September that in light of the terrorist attacks, talks with Chechens are now "impossible." Nemtsov explained that he "never advocated negotiations with [Chechen President Aslan] Maskhadov or with terrorists... They should be destroyed -- that's the long and short of it... But once all of the ringleaders have been taken out, we may talk to representatives of the Chechen people. Waging a war on a whole people is impossible," he said.

And echoing concerns expressed about the U.S., political scientist Yelena Shestopal argued in an interview with "Nezavisimaya gazeta" on 13 September that an intensified battle against terrorism in Russia may lead to "some restrictions on civil rights and liberties." She noted that Russia's executive branch will have to take the lead in the battle since "the problem of terrorism is not solved by laws." Such a prediction should provide little comfort to those observers who had already noted a tension between the Putin administration's rhetorical emphasis on establishing a rule of law state and its efforts to centralize decision making, squash independent media, and selectively enforce laws aimed at the Kremlin's political opponents.