Reuters - 09.25.2007

Putin's musical chairs keeps Russia guessing

Analysis

By Michael Stott

MOSCOW - After a 12-day wait, President Vladimir Putin's cabinet reshuffle surprised by making few changes and kept Russia in the dark about the identity of his preferred successor.

Kremlin-watchers hunting for clues about Putin's favored candidate for March's presidential vote were disappointed.

Three of the men most often mentioned as contenders -- Sergei Ivanov, Dmitry Medvedev and Sergei Naryshkin -- kept exactly the same titles and responsibilities.

Analysts said Putin's main objective was to guarantee the continuity of his policies after he leaves office next year.

"Putin is finishing the construction of Team Putin without Putin," said Boris Makarenko, deputy director of the Centre for Political Technology, an independent think-tank.

"He is furnishing the house for his successor and he has to be very careful where he puts each chair and each table."

Putin set the musical chairs in motion by appointing a close ally, little-known career bureaucrat Viktor Zubkov, as prime minister on September 12 and telling him to reorganize the cabinet and make it "tick like a Swiss watch".

When the cabinet changes were finally announced after nearly two weeks of speculation and rumor, only three ministers -- none of them a likely presidential contender -- lost their jobs.

First deputy prime ministers Ivanov and Medvedev, and deputy premier Naryshkin were left unchanged. Other survivors included Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin.

"Ivanov and Medvedev have kept their positions. There is a high chance of an electoral contest between them," said Sergei Markov, a political analyst with close Kremlin ties.

Like other analysts, Markov said Putin's promotion to the cabinet of his long-time ally and envoy to the southern federal district, Dmitry Kozak, meant Kozak could now be considered another possible presidential candidate.

Kozak's position was bolstered by the announcement on Tuesday that, in his new role as regional development minister, he would oversee a $12 billion budget investment fund.

CLOUDING THE PICTURE

Further clouding the picture, Putin boosted Finance Minister Kudrin by giving him the additional title of deputy prime minister, taking the number of deputy premiers to five.

"With five deputy prime ministers, the government structure will become more complex," said Moscow investment bank Renaissance Capital in a report.

"Along with the return of Kozak...we view this as an indication that President Putin prefers to keep his options open in terms of choosing his successor."

During his nearly eight years in the presidency, Putin has won a reputation for closely guarding political secrets and springing surprises. Monday's reshuffle was no exception.

"After such a long wait it was surprising that relatively few changes were made," said independent political analyst Georgy Bovt. This was a sign of possible power struggles inside the Kremlin as the election approaches, he added.

The three departures were Health and Social Development Minister Mikhail Zurabov, Economy Minister German Gref and Regional Development Minister Vladimir Yakovlev.

Zurabov and Yakovlev were unpopular and their exits had been widely predicted while Gref -- a leading economic liberal -- had several times asked Putin to let him leave, analysts said.

Keeping the balance of the cabinet intact, Putin named another liberal and former Gref deputy, Elvira Nabiullina, to replace him.

Makarenko said that, if nothing else, the reshuffle had diminished the likelihood of Putin producing another presidential contender from nowhere because of the time needed to build up a media profile ahead of next March's vote.

"The shortlist is down to three -- Medvedev, Ivanov and Zubkov," he said, before adding quickly that a last-minute surprise could not be ruled out.

(Additional reporting by Anna Mintskovskaya)