Russia Journal - 10.08.2001

 

The Russia Journal

New Red Wave Starts Rolling

By Dimitry Pinsker

Whether out of a sense of helplessness or incompetence, presidential analysts and spin-doctors always talk of Communist successes in the regions with concern. The most the Kremlin-dwellers have done so far though is to identify the problem and give it an eloquent name – the "new red wave."

What is happening with the Communists is indeed surprising. The Kremlin hasn’t succeeded in toppling them in their traditional heartlands of Central Russia and the North Caucasus. Critics may cite the case of Ulyanovsk, but this doesn’t count: Communist Yury Goryachev, who tried building developed socialism in a single region, was replaced by a "Chechen war hero" General Vladimir Shamanov, who now and then attempts to introduce something reminiscent of War Communism.

As if this wasn’t enough, the Kremlin has let the Communists expand their influence in the regions. Traditionally liberal Nizhny Novgorod elected Communist Gennady Khodyrev as governor. Irkutsk and Rostov-on-Don narrowly avoided a similar fate only because the acting governors used the full might of the administrative resources to stop it. In Rostov, the Communist candidate was struck from the list just a few days before voting. In Irkutsk, the incumbent governor snatched a victory from his Communist rival by an extremely slim margin, which probably only appeared in the final hours of vote counting.

And these places are not provincial backwaters of the likes of Tula or Ivanovo. These are major intellectual and industrial cities, which by Russian standards are performing quite well. Traditionally, voters in these regions have supported if not the right-wing parties, then at least the "party of power."

The Communist successes are all the more glaring given the Kremlin team’s string of victories against the Communists at the federal level. The Communists have lost much of their influence over key decision-making processes in the last six months. The fights in the Duma over the Land Code last summer and the unauthorized demonstrations in Moscow during debates on the Land and Labor Codes bear this out. At that time, the Kremlin’s reaction, though not public, was rapid and straight to the point – either the Communists got back into line, or they faced losing their Duma committee chairmanships.

This was a serious threat. Holding the chair of a Duma committee is valuable not just as a source of administrative influence and a chance to get party officials budget-funded jobs, but also as a source of party funding – as payment for lobbying services.

The autumn Duma session has so far seen the Communists keeping a much lower profile – proof of their increasing weakness as a political force. The Duma had no problems passing the Land Code, and two weeks later even voted on it again, just to dismiss any possible accusations of procedural violations. The 2002 draft budget also passed its first reading without any particular problems.

But despite the fact that the Duma now has an unquestionably loyal presidential majority, ready to pass whatever laws the president wishes, the Kremlin is still holding off with key laws that have always caused controversy among the left-wingers – most notably the trade in agricultural land. The new Land Code doesn’t apply to agricultural land.

Possible explanations for this cautiousness in the Kremlin are that the left still has a certain influence on the government and Kremlin apparatus, which is responsible for drawing up key documents, and the traditional fear of provoking an outright conflict with a still-powerful opposition party.

The results of the latest round of regional elections are what makes it possible to say the Communists still retain some power. And the National-Patriotic Union’s assembly last weekend showed that the left is full of fighting spirit and able to make a sudden change of course when necessary.

Several times during his speech, Communist leader Gennady Zyuganov used the expression "nationwide discussion" when talking about this or that cause dear to the left’s heart. Zyuganov said it was imperative to work more actively in the regions with ordinary people.

"The time has come to identify the causes for people’s passivity and to more accurately predict forthcoming events," said Communist Party ideologue Ivan Melnikov. "This means we have to figure out how to turn passive protest into action."

To strengthen their positions outside the Duma, which had been the left’s main playing field, the Communists don’t even necessarily have to resort to "action" or enter into a head-on collision with Putin personally. The average voter isn’t highly politicized, doesn’t follow Moscow political intrigue very closely, and doesn’t see a great difference between Putin and the Communists.

This kind of voter goes more by symbols and words. Putin has expressed respect for the left in words and has spoken warmly of the Communist Party. And he has also backed his words up with deeds, chief among them being the decision to return the Soviet national anthem, something the left couldn’t have dreamed of under Boris Yeltsin.

The paradox of this situation is that the Communists could follow the strategy of stubbornly drumming into people’s heads the banal old idea of the good tsar – in this case Putin – who is really "our man," and the evil Boyars, the German Grefs and Anatoly Chubaises, who feed the tsar all sorts of liberal-bourgeois lies.

If the Communists succeed in cementing this image in voters’ minds, it will be that much harder to stop the new red wave from rolling further.