RFE/RL - 10.19.2001

 

Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty

END NOTE

Western Support for Baltic Membership in NATO Increases

By Taras Kuzio 

Some Western commentators have expressed concern that
Russia's inclusion within the international coalition against terrorism
will lead to it demanding concessions from the U.S. in areas such
as NATO enlargement. These fears seem to be increasingly
unwarranted as the range of Western countries that have voiced
their support for the inclusion of the Baltic states continues to
grow. There are even indications that Russian President Vladimir
Putin may be withdrawing his "red line" to the CIS, which would
no longer include the Baltic states within its sphere of influence. 

The Baltic states have always feared that NATO enlargement
might ignore them because of Russian objections, and they
therefore devised the idea of a "big bang" second round of NATO
enlargement at the May 2000 meeting in Vilnius of nine aspirant
members of NATO in the presence of NATO Secretary-General
Lord George Robertson. At that meeting, the representatives of
the three Baltic states drafted a position statement that argued that
at the summit scheduled for November 2002 in Prague NATO
should invite all nine aspirant states to join at the same time and not
individually. 

The Baltic republics initially looked to the U.S., Scandinavian
countries, and Central European NATO members Poland, the
Czech Republic, and Hungary as their main supporters in their bid
for NATO membership. On recent visits to the Baltic states,
Polish President Aleksandr Kwasniewski and Polish Foreign
Minister Wladyslaw Bartoszewski both came out strongly in favor
of Baltic membership. These views were also expressed by
Hungarian Defense Minister Janos Szabo to the Hungarian
parliament earlier this month. 

Scandinavia has been at the forefront of promoting the Baltic
states within NATO. Norwegian Prime Minister Kjell Magne
Bondevik said that, "For Norway, based as we are up in the high
north, it is important for us that there is a northern dimension in the
NATO enlargement process." He added, "We are working inside
NATO in favor of Lithuania and the other Baltic states' aspirations
for membership." At a Helsinki summit in August, Foreign
Ministers from Denmark, Norway, Iceland, Sweden, and Finland
expressed their firm support for the Balts to be included within
NATO. 

Support within NATO has expanded beyond the Central Europe
and Scandinavia. Then-Turkish President Suleyman Demirel told
his visiting Estonian counterpart as early as October 1998 that he
rejected any Russian veto over NATO enlargement and therefore,
"I have supported Estonia's wish to become a full member of
NATO." 

Germany and France initially expressed Russophile views that
argued against Baltic membership. Former German Defense
Minister Volker Ruehe opposed NATO enlargement into the
Baltic states, while the then-Foreign Minister, Klaus Kinkel,
backed enlargement. German officials reiterated that Russian
"consent" would be required for further NATO enlargement, a
statement in clear contradiction of NATO's "open door" policy.
The German position has gradually evolved into cautious support,
and France too now officially supports Baltic membership in
NATO. 

Ultimately, it will be the United States, the dominant country within
NATO, that will have the decisive say in whether the Balts are
asked to join next year. Writing in the fall issue of "The National
Interest," James Kurth points out that President Bush's foreign
policy speech in Warsaw in June had the Balts in mind when he
reaffirmed NATO's open door to new members. Canadian
Foreign Minister John Manley also ruled out the U.S. abandoning
support for Baltic membership of NATO in exchange for Russian
concessions on missile defense. 

U.S. House of Representatives and Senate advisers told their
Lithuanian hosts this year that there is practically no opposition in
Congress to Lithuania's membership in NATO. U.S. Secretary of
State Colin Powell advised his Baltic counterparts last month that
the United States remains committed to their "full integration into
the Trans-Atlantic community," and that the U.S. will continue to
assist them in this endeavor through the U.S.-Baltic Charter
(U.S.-B C) and the U.S.-Baltic Partnership Commission (U.S.-B
PC) established in January 1998 on the basis of the August 1996
Baltic Action Plan. 

The U.S.-B Charter is a political document that reaffirms U.S.
support for the independence and integration of the Baltic states
into the EU and NATO. One key provision envisages
consultations in the event that the territorial integrity,
independence, or security of one or all of the Baltic states is
threatened. The U.S.-B Charter clearly entailed U.S. support for
Baltic accession to NATO in any future round of enlargement and
the continuation of NATO's open door policy. Former U.S.
President Bill Clinton recently told the new Estonian Ambassador
to the United States, Sven Jurgenson, that, "the United States
welcomes and supports Estonia's aspiration to NATO
membership." 

The U.S.-B PC has assisted the Balts with their Membership
Action Plans (MAP) in preparation for full membership. NATO
Deputy Secretary-General Klaus-Peter Kleiber called Estonia's
2001 MAP for joining NATO a realistic, well considered, and
constructive document. Latvia's MAP for 2001 was implemented
123 percent by August (in comparison to 88 percent in 2000). All
three Baltic states have promised to increase their defense
spending next year to 2 percent of GDP, the NATO average. 

Multilateral and bilateral cooperation between NATO, individual
NATO members and PfP (Partner) countries and the three Baltic
states has been extensive in six key areas that contribute toward
implementing their MAPs. These have included improving the
combat efficiency of their security forces; encouraging them to
raise their defense budgets to 2 percent of GDP; funding by the
U.S. and Norway of a regional airspace surveillance control center
(Baltnet) based at Karmelava, Lithuania; the creation of a Baltic
naval squadron Baltron funded by Denmark and based in Estonia;
a joint Baltic Defense College (Baltdefcol) that opened in Tartu,
Estonia, in 1999 with support from Sweden; assistance in
establishing a Lithuanian-Polish battalion; and the development of
a joint Baltic battalion (Baltbat) with assistance from the U.K. and
the supply of surplus armaments and military equipment. 

Despite fears that the U.S. would make concessions to Russia in
its campaign against terrorism in the area of NATO enlargement
this does not seem to be occurring. Western support for Baltic
membership in NATO, which was thought to be unrealistic in the
1990s, has growing support among the majority of NATO
members and even among neutral countries. 

Taras Kuzio is a research associate at the Centre for International
and Security Studies, York University.