New York Times - 10.22.2001

 

New York Times

Bush and Putin Agree to Agree

By Patrick E. Tyler

HANGHAI, Oct. 21 — For President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia and President Bush, the road to Crawford, Tex. — and the tantalizing goal of rewriting the rules of arms control — may have rounded its last corner here in Shanghai.

The two leaders said tonight that they had made progress on narrowing their differences on the Antiballistic Missile Treaty of 1972. Even before the meeting, Mr. Putin had told senior aides and members of his traveling party that he was ready to accede to an American request to modify the ABM treaty so long as Mr. Bush did not decide to withdraw altogether from the accord.

Mr. Putin emphasized tonight that he and Mr. Bush "have an understanding that we can reach agreements."

Mr. Bush said that he and Mr. Putin had some work to do in the coming weeks. But if body language and the mutual admiration expressed are any indication, an agreement is near, and could cap the Bush- Putin meetings next month, their first on American soil.

For Mr. Bush, the apparent Russian decision to accept a shift in the ABM framework could help realize a prime national security goal — the development of missile defenses through an expanded series of antimissile tests the Pentagon plans to start next spring.

Whether Mr. Bush decides to withdraw from the treaty may turn on how destabilizing it might be — particularly given European concerns about the United States acting alone.

In addition, the Russians plainly still view the ABM treaty as useful. Mr. Putin said tonight, "We believe it is an important element of stability in the world."

Mr. Putin has also publicly warned that to destroy the ABM treaty — and by extension the 30-year legacy of arms control accords — poses the risk of inciting nuclear states like India and Pakistan to continue to ignore the proliferation constraints that hang over them.

So Mr. Putin's view that the ABM treaty can "stretch" to cover any American testing program could still prevail in both Moscow and Washington.

In making his views known to senior aides and the circle of Russian journalists who travel with him, Mr. Putin appeared to be preparing the Russian political establishment, and the Russian public, for what he sees as the inevitable.

In this view, Russia has no choice but to go along because the Bush administration is determined to switch to a new mix of offensive and defensive arms. This switch is intended to thwart perceived threats from states like North Korea or Iraq, or groups that acquire the ability to deliver weapons of mass destruction on ballistic missiles.

What Mr. Putin appears to want in return is a more visible role for Russia in European security arrangements. Russia seeks a strong measure of respect, a role in international relations and a closer partnership with Washington and NATO. Moscow also craves recognition that Russia stands as a bulwark between Europe and the kind of Islamic militancy that it is battling in Chechnya and the United States is now fighting in Afghanistan.

"They do not want to be isolated," a Bush administration official said.

Mr. Putin has also made clear that he wants a major mutual reduction in the American and Russian nuclear arsenals. Russia can no longer afford to maintain its nuclear weapons.

Mr. Bush came to China with some incentive on this score — a message conveyed to the Russian foreign minister, Igor S. Ivanov, that the United States has reached a decision on the specifics of deep unilateral cuts to its strategic nuclear arsenal.

The decision, which has not yet been made public, does not go as low as the 1,500 warheads suggested by the Russians, but an administration official indicated that the Russians were pleased with the results. Under the Start II agreement, signed in 1993, the arsenals were to be cut to 3,500 warheads each, but continuing disputes have thus far prevented the agreement from coming into force.

"We are not where the Russians are in terms of a number, but this was one of the things they were waiting for," an administration official said.

Last July, during their meeting in Genoa, Italy, Mr. Putin and Mr. Bush agreed to join the issue of cutting offensive weapons to any discussion on modifications to the ABM treaty.

Deep cuts in the American arsenal would make Mr. Putin's decision on the ABM treaty more palatable to Russian military leaders who are said to be grumbling that Mr. Putin is getting too little in return for his flexibility.

In addition, Mr. Putin is said to have explained to his traveling party that he will not insist on any Russian "sphere of influence" in Central Asia. That amounts to another nod to the inevitable as American Special Forces and search-and-rescue units already are deployed in Uzbekistan, next door to thousands of Russian troops guarding the Afghan border in Tajikistan.

According to a person present at a lengthy presentation by the Russian leader this weekend, Mr. Putin said he was more than willing to accept greater Western military assistance to Georgia if that would help its president, Eduard A. Shevardnadze, to impose greater control over the porous border between Georgia and Chechnya and prevent Chechen rebels fighting the Russian Army from finding sanctuary in Georgia.

The Russian leader also has some advice for Mr. Bush on Afghanistan, because he is concerned about efforts to include so-called moderate elements of the Taliban in any new government. That would be a mistake, Mr. Putin has told his traveling party, because there are no moderates in the fundamentalist Islamic government. Mr. Putin is also said to be opposed to widening the military campaign to Iraq, where Russia has extensive financial interests.

Still, there are strong indications that Mr. Putin and Mr. Bush are headed for a profound post-Soviet reckoning of views in their meetings in Washington and Crawford next month.

The personal chemistry between Mr. Bush and Mr. Putin was evident today as they chatted informally and strolled along a promenade in Shanghai, both dressed in traditional Chinese jackets cut from the same blue silk.

Mr. Putin is said to be openly excited about visiting Mr. Bush's ranch. When he accepted the president's invitation, Mr. Putin said he was looking forward to some horseback riding, a member of his traveling party said. But Mr. Bush appeared to lower the Russian leader's expectations, explaining that the preferred mode of transport around the ranch was a jeep.