Providence Journal - 10.26.2004

The Providence Journal

An important election looms in Ukraine 

By Philip Terzian

KIEV, Ukraine (SH) - We're not the only country electing a president this year. Ukraine, a one-time province of the Soviet Union for which elections are a very recent novelty, is choosing a president as well. And for Ukrainians, at least, this really is the most important election of their lifetime. 

The importance, by the way, does not depend on the outcome. The two leading candidates, Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovich and challenger Viktor Yushchenko, are both experienced politicians, committed to freedom and (in their separate ways) friendly to Europe and the United States. The election of one instead of the other would not presage a crisis in U.S.-Ukrainian relations, or spell trouble for Ukraine's fledgling democracy. 

The danger lies in the contest, not the results. The current president, Leonid Kuchma, is an ex-Soviet apparatchik, and while not in the same category as Alexander Lukashenko, dictator of neighboring Belarus, he is not what we would call an instinctive democrat. In the back of every Ukrainian's mind lurks the possibility that Kuchma, for whatever reason, might suspend the election, or interfere ostentatiously in the campaign. 

With each passing day, the likelihood of such a self-destructive gesture diminishes. But the fact that the subject is mentioned at all tells us what we need to know about President Kuchma. 

What seems more likely is the kind of backstage maneuvering that would enable Kuchma to control his successor from behind the scenes. As the incumbent prime minister, Yanukovich suffers from the perception that he is Kuchma's chosen instrument. But that is hardly the case. Under Ukraine's parliamentary system, premiers are chosen out of legislative necessity, not political affinity. Both candidates are strong personalities with independent bases of support, and if Kuchma has a favorite in the contest, it is not readily evident. 

This is not quite the way the West perceives events. The campaign has featured dirty tricks, unseemly charges, shameless pandering and even a mysterious malady that sent Yushchenko to a clinic in Vienna, Austria, for three weeks. Western diplomats are persuaded that the bulk of such incidents may be traced to Yanukovich, which bolsters their perception that he is Kuchma's favorite. 

Once again, however, the evidence is ambiguous. I have no doubt that both sides are guilty of transgressions, but remain a little puzzled by Western indignation. Ukraine has been an independent, democratic state for a dozen years, and it is not as if our own political contests are pristine. 

Baby steps toward democracy are inevitably awkward. 

You can walk around the ancient capital city of Kiev, and feel discouraged. There is much about national life - and, it must be said, national character - still redolent of the Soviet Union, and that has affected politics. The Ukrainian economy is growing, but nowhere near as free as it needs to be. Ukrainians, caught between the old Russian empire and Eastern Europe, harbor strong national sentiments, but are equally ambivalent about Russia and the West. 

Yet you can walk around Kiev and feel optimistic as well. This is a country that has languished under a series of imperial jackboots for centuries. An estimated 6 million to 8 million Ukrainians died in the Soviet collectivization of agriculture in the 1930s, and 10 million perished in World War II. (The current population is 49 million.) You do the math. After mass death, political and religious persecution, and seven decades of communism, it is miraculous to observe the energy and idealism of modern Ukrainians. 

That's the good news: The press is free and distinctly opinionated, and even broadcast outlets are roughly divided between the candidates. Political dialogue is unfettered, and considerably less restrained than in the United States. It is no small matter that opposition candidate Yushchenko could win next month. He has appealed to wavering voters by pledging to withdraw Ukrainian troops from Iraq while Yanukovich has gained support by taking advantage of incumbency: Raising pensions, workers' wages and student stipends. Yanukovich, a stolid, jowly bureaucrat, reassures fretful voters. 

Yushchenko, younger and trimmer, appeals to Western notions of vitality. 

America has a stake in this election as well. Ukraine is at a crossroads between falling inexorably under Russian influence, or embracing NATO and the European Union. Obviously, from our point of view, a Western-oriented Ukraine is preferable to a reconstituted Russian empire. But Russia has a long border with Ukraine, and the two cultures and economies are historically linked. We can hope for a Russia-friendly Ukraine that faces Westward. But we won't get it unless and until this election takes place. 

Philip Terzian, The Providence Journal's associate editor, writes a column from Washington.