RFE/RL - 10.29.2002

Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty

Liberal Russian Leader Expelled from Minsk -- To Whose Benefit?

By Jan Maksymiuk

The Belarusian KGB detained Union of Rightist Forces (SPS) leader Boris Nemtsov on his arrival at the Minsk international airport on 23 October and promptly put him on a plane back to Moscow at the Minsk domestic airport. Nemtsov, accompanied by State Duma Deputy Speaker Irina Khakamada (SPS), planned to attend a conference on Belarusian-Russia integration in Minsk, with the participation of Belarusian opposition leaders. Khakamada, though not detained, chose to leave Minsk with Nemtsov. This incident garnered headlines in both Belarus and Russia on 23 October, but in subsequent days it was eclipsed by the hostage-taking drama in Moscow.

"After we were transported to the other airport, someone threw on the table an unknown case with a large number of wads of dollars -- eight huge wads of $100 banknotes -- and false SPS brochures, in front of television cameras," "Komsomolskaya pravda" quoted Khakamada as saying later the same day at the Sheremetevo-1 airport in Moscow. "We were asked: 'Whose case is this?' Nemtsov promptly said it was not his case. Then they asked me. I also denied it was mine. Then they took the case away. This was what we may call a dirty provocation. They apparently decided to demonstrate to the Belarusian people that we finance opposition parties in Belarus and carry U.S. dollars in cash in our suitcases, didn't they?"

"They wanted to expel only me," Nemtsov commented. "But it turned out that I was with Khakamada. And they didn't dare touch her, because Lukashenka hadn't ordered [the KGB] to touch Khakamada. Now we will always be together."

Belarusian KGB spokesman Fyodar Kotau said on 23 October that Nemtsov was expelled in accordance with Belarus' law on the legal status of foreigners and stateless persons. "We received a phone call this morning warning that Nemtsov was going to bring a large sum of money in hard currency into the Republic of Belarus to support his allies," Kotau noted. "I don't think there is any need to name these allies. Everybody remembers the well-known conversation about overthrowing the legitimately elected president of our country through joint efforts," he added. Kotau was obviously referring to the transcript of a telephone conversation between Nemtsov and Belarusian opposition leader Anatol Lyabedzka -- published in Russia and Belarus in September -- in which the two politicians seemed to discuss plans to oust President Alyaksandr Lukashenka with assistance from the Kremlin (see "RFE/RL Poland, Belarus, and Ukraine Report," 10 September 2002).

The version that Nemtsov was trying to smuggle $50,000 and subversive publications into Belarus was also confirmed by Belarus' Foreign Ministry. "The Foreign Ministry of the Republic of Belarus thinks that representatives of the Russian Federation's political circles should visit Belarus with comprehensible goals," Foreign Ministry spokesman Pavel Latushka added. "Belarus' Foreign Ministry has [already] drawn attention to Boris Nemtsov's repeated, inadmissible, insulting statements and actions with regard to the Belarusian state, which has friendly relations with Russia. Boris Nemtsov's efforts to complicate the development of Belarusian-Russian relations [and] to halt integration processes, [as well as] his categorical disagreement with the policy of the building of a union state, are damaging not only Belarusian-Russian relations but also prospects for building the union."

The same day, the Russian Foreign Ministry said in a statement that reports of Nemtsov's deportation from Minsk were met "with bewilderment and deep concern" in Moscow. "The abuse of the freedom of travel of Russian and Belarusian citizens within the framework of the union state by no means agrees with the special relationship between Russia and Belarus," ITAR-TASS quoted from the statement. "It is clear that the incident was inspired by certain circles not interested in the development of Russian-Belarusian cooperation and integration. Russia hopes that the Belarusian leadership will offer explanations regarding the incident."

Belarusian President Lukashenka commented on the incident on 24 October, saying he is sure the incident will not spoil Belarusian-Russian relations. He also expressed a more personal view of Nemtsov's trip to Minsk. "[Nemtsov] said yesterday that...he and Khakamada are now inseparable for life," Belarusian Television quoted the president as saying. "I don't think they had to take $50,000 with them to Minsk [to prove that]. We could arrange their wedding for life free of charge.... There are people in Russia who have sickened not only the authorities but also society as a whole. I think [Nemtsov and Khakamada] are [among such people]," Lukashenka added.

Most Belarusian and Russian commentators agree that Nemtsov's expulsion on 23 October did not follow a sudden "telephone call" earlier the same day -- as suggested by Minsk -- but was an operation prepared by the KGB well in advance, with Lukashenka's approval. Those commentators also argue that Lukashenka hates Nemtsov so much that, in order to take revenge on him, the Belarusian president will not even avoid taking steps that may directly affect Minsk's relations with Moscow. Nemtsov has repeatedly spoken very negatively of Lukashenka, pointing to the Belarusian president as the main obstacle to Belarusian-Russian integration.

In the above-mentioned telephone conversation with Lyabedzka, Nemtsov suggested that the Kremlin is ready to cooperate with the Belarusian opposition to oust Lukashenka in order to develop a "European Union type" of integration with Belarus. Lukashenka, who is known for being very sensitive to any kind of criticism and unfavorable statements about him, could hardly be pleased while reading the transcript of the conversation in the Moscow-based ultranationalist newspaper "Zavtra," in which Nemtsov referred to him as a "bastard," an "outcast," a "clown," and a "monster."

"The [expulsion] scandal that took place at the Minsk airport yesterday is first and foremost a manifestation of the barbarian nature of our regime," Belarusian opposition activist Yury Khadyka told RFE/RL's Belarusian Service on 24 October. "Everything [that happened] was primarily dictated by [Lukashenka's] personal dislike [of Nemtsov]. As for other motives, they will be presented later.... It is evident that the expulsion may exacerbate Belarusian-Russian relations. This is why I think this action was ill-considered and mistaken. This expulsion has fully played into Moscow's hands. Now Moscow can, by referring to this foolery, adopt any economic or political sanctions [against Belarus]."


It remains to be seen whether there will be other official reactions to Nemtsov's deportation in addition to the statement from the Russian Foreign Ministry. ITAR-TASS quoted a slew of remarks by Russian State Duma deputies condemning Lukashenka. Thus far, however, the Russian legislature has not issued any official statement on the expulsion. 

Could Lukashenka benefit in some way from last week's banishment of Nemtsov from Minsk? RFE/RL's Belarusian Service suggested on 25 October that he could. 

Last week, Minsk failed to agree with Gazprom on additional Russian gas supplies to Belarus. The problem is that Belarus consumes more Russian gas than it has contracted, pays in a very untimely manner, and has already accumulated a gas debt nearing some $300 million. According to Gazprom deputy head Aleksandr Ryazanov, Belarus in January-September siphoned off 1.5 billion cubic meters of Russian gas. Moreover, Ryazanov stressed that Minsk pays in cash only for some 8 percent of the contracted supplies. "The results of our recent talks were depressing," Belapan quoted Ryazanov as saying. Ryazanov noted that Gazprom, which has been selling gas to Belarus at a reduced price, suffers losses and is ready to help Belarus find suppliers to deliver gas at "free" prices. He noted that free prices means that Belarus would have to pay at least $35-36 for 1,000 cubic meters, whereas it now pays $24 to Gazprom.

According to RFE/RL's Belarusian Service, if Gazprom persists in its reluctance to supply more gas to Belarus, and if the Belarusian government subsequently fails to warm some apartments during the upcoming winter, Lukashenka could somehow justify this failure by accusing Moscow of applying economic sanctions on Belarus over the expulsion of Nemtsov, a declared enemy of Belarusian-Russian integration. It will be cold comfort, undoubtedly, but politically it would be a much better explanation than simply admitting that the government has no money to buy gas for the winter.