Agence France-Presse - 11.09.2006

Republicans better off for Russia - analysts

By Stephen Boykewich

Moscow (AFP) - Russia is bracing for a tougher stance from Washington following the Democratic party's victory in United States Congressional elections, analysts and media said on Thursday.

"It's certainly not going to help," Kremlin-connected analyst Vyacheslav Nikonov told AFP, speaking of Tuesday's mid-term elections in which Democrats won control of the House of Representatives and appeared to squeak ahead in the senate.

"Historically, Democrats have always been more complicated for us than Republicans," Nikonov said, invoking Soviet-era conventional wisdom about American presidents.

And while President George W. Bush has two more years in office, the new Democratic Congress is likely to fight him "every step of the way," Nikonov said N including on key Russian priorities such as membership in the World Trade Organisation.

US-Russian relations have been complicated in recent months, hitting snags over Iran, human rights and energy-related issues, but Bush has supported Russia's decade-long bid to join the WTO, Nikonov said.

With congress beyond the president's control, "for me it's obvious that Russia's entry to the WTO can't possibly happen now," Nikonov said.

"At every step the Democrats are going to oppose Bush's priorities, so if he's made this a priority, they're going to get in the way."

Konstantin Kosachyov, chair of the State Duma's international affairs committee, concurred.

Bilateral "relations will unquestionably be more highly politicised, including on Russia's entry into the WTO and removing the Jackson-Vanik amendment," Kosachyov told Ekho Moskvy radio, referring to a Cold War-era US law limiting trade with formerly Communist countries.

Though Bush could agree a bilateral WTO deal with Russia without Congress' approval, Congress' willingness to lift Jackson-Vanik has been seen as a necessary precursor to a deal.

Russian newspapers projected changes to US policy on a wide range of international issues, including the war in Iraq, under Democratic influence.

But most newspapers focused on what they said was the grimmer outlook for relations between Moscow and Washington.

"The Republicans' defeat... does not only signal an important change in US foreign policy concerning Iraq, Iran and North Korea, but also a change in the US' Russia policy: it will be tougher," the Kommersant daily said.

Daily Vremya Novostei also predicted "unpleasantness" for Russia given the "hardline position of numerous influential Democrats."

Kommersant pointed out that Democratic congressman Tom Lantos, a longtime critic of President Vladimir Putin's Kremlin, is set to take over leadership of the international relations committee of the House of Representatives.

"Tom Lantos' 'anti-Russian' initiatives did not make an impact on the Bush administration before... Now it will be more difficult for Bush not to pay attention to the position of Lantos and his allies," Kommersant said.