Near East Report - 12.17.2001

 

Near East Report

Major Tests

Russian President Vladimir Putin must prove he is a true partner in America’s war against terrorism by distancing Moscow from the rogue states of Iran and Iraq, writes a top Russia expert.

As Russia and the United States bask in the warm afterglow of the recent Bush-Putin summit, several looming tests will determine whether Russia is now a true friend and ally of the United States or whether Russian President Vladimir Putin joined the U.S.-led anti-terrorism coalition merely to win support for Russia’s suppression of the Chechen rebellion.

These tests will gauge the reaction of Russia, which is being considered for future NATO membership, to the growing U.S. confrontation with Iraq, the types of weapons and technology it will sell to Iran and its behavior toward the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Will Russia put its commercial interests ahead of containing Iraq?

With more than $1 billion in annual trade between Moscow and Baghdad and Russia’s hope for more lucrative contracts, it will be interesting to see if Russia puts its commercial interests ahead of its stated commitment to the war on terrorism. Will Russia back the United States if Washington, following a Taliban defeat in Afghanistan, launches an attack against Saddam’s regime after concluding that there is a convincing link between Iraq and the terrorists who perpetrated the Sept. 11 attacks or those who spread anthrax in the United States, or that Iraq is developing weapons of mass destruction? Will Russia be willing to exert serious pressure on Saddam to admit U.N. weapons inspectors, should the administration threaten a war if the inspectors are not returned to Iraq?

And while the United States and Russia just voted for a six-month extension of the U.N.’s “oil-for-food” program for Iraq, the issue of “dual-use” or military-capable imports has not been settled. In July, Moscow vetoed a U.S.-British proposal which, in return for easing restrictions on the importation of civilian goods, would have tightened the sanctions on dual-use items and, simultaneously, stepped up efforts to curb Iraqi oil smuggling that enables Saddam to evade restrictions on Iraqi oil revenues. Reportedly, Moscow agreed to consider, by next July, the U.S. dual-use list, but whether it will accede to the list is still an outstanding question for the burgeoning U.S.-Russian relationship.

Russia continues to supply Iran with sophisticated missile technology

Another key test for Moscow lies in its supply of missile technology to Iran. Despite frequent U.S. and Israeli appeals at the highest levels, Russian companies have maintained an uninterrupted flow of technology that has enabled Iran to build the Shahab 3 missile, which is capable of hitting Israel. Russia’s continuation of providing Iran with sophisticated missile technology or selling to Tehran, as part of a recently announced arms deal, an advanced air-defense system and modern ship-to-ship missiles, would gravely endanger U.S., European and Israeli security interests and could hamper the movements of U.S. forces in the Persian Gulf and Indian Ocean.

Russia and Israel have expanded their defense and business ties

The final test for Moscow will be its reaction to the rapidly escalating Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Since Putin came to power two years ago, he has adopted a much more evenhanded position to the conflict than his predecessor, Boris Yeltsin. Indeed, Putin has strongly endorsed the U.S.-supported Mitchell plan as the way to ending violence and returning to negotiations.

While the Russian Foreign Ministry still tilts toward the Arabs, Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov, who once compared Israel's problems with Hamas and Islamic Jihad to Russia’s problems in Chechnya, seems much more supportive of Israel. In fact, the Russian Defense Ministry is cooperating with Israel in the development of an AWACS command-and-control plane and has been putting a number of Israeli spy satellites into orbit. In addition, Russian businessmen have a keen interest in nurturing the more than $1 billion in annual trade between the two countries.

Should the Israeli-Palestinian conflict continue to escalate, countries such as Syria could be drawn into the conflict, and Russia may be tempted to exploit the situation to sell Syria the extremely capable SAM-300 air defense system which Damascus has long coveted, with Saudi Arabia possibly paying for the deal. Such a sale would seriously complicate Israel’s retaliatory capabilities, and would further escalate the Arab-Israeli conflict.

While there appears to have been a change for the better in Russian-American relations since Sept. 11, rapidly changing developments in the Middle East will clearly pose major tests for the evolving relationship between the former adversaries. —Robert O. Freedman

Dr. Freedman is Peggy Meyerhoff Pearlstone Professor of Political Science at Baltimore Hebrew University and Visiting Professor of Political Science at Johns Hopkins University. Among his publications are Moscow and the Middle East (1991), Israel Under Rabin (1995) and Israel’s First Fifty Years (2000).