New York Times - 12.31.2006

New York Times

Russia: A New Parliament, but Still All Putin?

By Steven Lee Myers

Russia heads into 2007 facing the question of whether President Vladimir V. Putin’s centralization of power can ensure the smooth ­ and more important, credible ­ election of a new Parliament, now scheduled for December.

Elections, even in a “democracy” as managed as Russia’s, have a way of surprising, as Ukraine showed after a fraudulent presidential election in 2004 led to mass protests. Mr. Putin is popular enough to ensure that whoever he supports will fare well, but corruption remains deeply rooted, as do poverty and crime and violence, any of which could be a catalyst for an electoral nyet.

The Kremlin is taking no chances. With Mr. Putin’s blessing, the existing Parliament, or Duma, spent much of 2006 preparing for the elections by tightening laws. It abolished minimum turnout requirements and the option of voting “against all.” New election rules also barred candidates from criticizing the authorities in office or even encouraging a vote against an opponent.

New laws against extremism have already been used to raid a political group led by the chess champion Garry Kasparov. When Mr. Kasparov led a rally of a few thousand protesters in Moscow this month, the police outnumbered them four to one.

Critics said the restrictions would stifle what opposition remains, including what’s left of the Communist Party and the old liberal democrats. The Duma is already dominated by United Russia, a party with little identity except as a reflection of Mr. Putin’s legislative will.

Liliya Shevtsova of the Moscow Carnegie Center said the Kremlin risked eliminating competition. “To have just one party with a constitutional majority,” she said, “it starts to look like the Soviet Communist Party.”

So in October, the Kremlin created an “opposition” party, cobbled from smaller parties. It is called Just Russia, and it, too, supports Mr. Putin. For the party’s leader, Sergei M. Mironov, this is a familiar path. He ran in the 2004 election “against” Mr. Putin by urging voters to re-elect Mr. Putin.

With a Kremlin endorsement and coverage on state television, Just Russia could provide a foil for United Russia, and provide at least a modicum of interest to the stilted politics of Mr. Putin’s second term, marked more than anything by an absence even of debate, let alone real competition.

Mr. Kasparov says the Kremlin has obscured the seeds of discontent. And they are growing, he says, especially beyond the glow of Moscow’s riches.

A big question looming is who will replace Mr. Putin in 2008? The maneuvering expected in 2007 reflects a concern over whether the system he created could survive without him. “The big day is approaching,” Mr. Kasparov said. “Uncertainty kills the system.”