Press Release - 12.16.99

TO: Interested Parties
FROM: Denis C. Braham, Chairman
Howard E. Sachs, President
Mark B. Levin, Executive Director
DATE: December 16, 1999

EVE OF RUSSIAN PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS

Next Sunday, December 19, Russia will hold elections for the Duma (lower chamber of parliament.) Over two dozen different parties have registered and are competing for seats in the 450-seat Duma. Half of these seats are assigned proportionally according to party lists, and the other half are reserved for single-mandate districts. The quantity of parties running, including numerous factions that have splintered off from larger parties, indicates that no one bloc or party will gain a clear majority in the new Duma. This will likely facilitate the formation of coalitions in the new Duma, and compel cooperation and concessions among the blocs.

PARTIES AND BLOCS

Communist Party: The Communist Party, which is the largest in the current Duma, is expected to garner the largest number of votes in this election, with current opinion polls placing it at 16-21 percent of the vote. Interestingly, Russia’s current Prime Minister and each of the previous four Prime Ministers to serve in the past 20 months have aligned with different parties, giving each of these parties broader visibility. In addition, other high-profile figures—including popular governors and mayors, entertainers and a sports figure—have joined in the race.

The two blocs running a tight race right behind the Communist Party are Fatherland-All Russia (OVR) and Unity (Medved), both formed in the past year.

OVR: OVR is a centrist party headed by former Prime Minister Yevgeni Primakov and Moscow Mayor Yuri Luzhkov. It has drained votes from the Communist Party through its appeal to tradition, while simultaneously advocating the need to proceed with market reforms. Mayor Luzhkov is viewed as a friend of the Jewish community who banned the fascist Russian National Unity (RNE) movement in Moscow and guaranteed adequate police protection for Moscow’s synagogues during the High Holy Days. Luzhkov’s actions have helped increase the popularity of the Fatherland-All Russia bloc among Jewish voters, although there is also uneasiness about his roundups of dark-skinned Russians.

Unity: Unity is the pro-Kremlin bloc headed by the Minister of Emergency Situations, Sergei Shoigu. This party continues to increase its appeal since gaining the endorsement of Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, who has become enormously popular among Russians as a result of the ongoing offensive in Chechnya.

Former Prime Minister Sergei Stepashin has aligned with the Yabloko party, which is fronted by liberal economist Grigory Yavlinsky and currently ranks fourth in the polls. Former Prime Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin, whose popularity has dramatically decreased in recent years, remains aligned with Our Home Is Russia.

"In Support of Army" (Makashov): The radical party, "In Support of Army," previously affiliated with the Communist Party, is now running independently. Two of the party’s leaders—former General Albert Makashov and Viktor Ilyukhin, head of the Duma’s security committee—are outspoken advocates of anti-Semitic views. "In Support of Army" is not expected to meet the five-percent threshold needed to enter the Duma.. This morning, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty reported that Makashov has been banned from competing for a single-mandate seat, on technical grounds, so he is unlikely to have a seat in the next Duma.

Zhirinovsky: The Central Election Commission (CEC) has rejected the registration of the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (led by ultra-nationalist Vladimir Zhirinovsky), on the grounds that numerous members failed to report all of their assets. Zhirinovsky has since organized Bloc Zhirinovsky, which will participate in the election and already ranks fifth in popularity—just ahead of former Prime Minister Sergei Kiriyenko’s Union of Rightist Forces.

THE MEDIA

The election campaign has given extremist, anti-Semitic parties the opportunity to broadcast their views to an attentive mass audience. The ultra-nationalist, xenophobic party Spas, for example, had been participating in television debates and airing campaign commercials before the CEC disqualified the party in late November for lying on the registration form. Spas was created to provide an electoral base for Alexander Barkashov’s Russian National Unity.

Leading up to the election, the media in general provides much of the information that the public will consider when voting. In Russia, access to independent media has been a growing problem. Many of Russia’s regions only have access to government-run media. Sometimes even the independent media can be biased, swayed by various political and commercial interests. According to a recent report by the U.S. Commission for Security and Cooperation in Europe (Helsinki Commission), news editors blame lack of access on the government, while the government blames media moguls who interfere in editorial policy. Overall, the pre-election campaigns have been gruesome, full of propaganda and mudslinging.

FUTURE IMPLICATIONS

Several candidates will use the Duma election as a springboard to the June 2000 Presidential election, and the fact that the Presidential election is just over six months away has special significance. President Yeltsin has wielded disproportionate power, with the authority to dissolve the Duma if, for example, the Duma fails to confirm his choice for Prime Minister. But a clause in the Russian Constitution stipulates that the President cannot dissolve the Parliament during his last six months in office. This will provide the new Duma an opportunity to alter the balance of power in Russia, revising legislation and possibly even parts of the Constitution to grant itself a mandate for broader authority, given that it need no longer fear potential dissolution from the lame-duck Yeltsin. Such a scenario would lessen the chance of a strong President controlling or restraining an independent-minded Duma.

A constructive development in this election cycle has been the mobilization of civic groups in many regions to increase public participation in the electoral process. According to Nina Belyaeva, President of Interlegal Foundation in Moscow, the Civil Society Coalition unites 300 organizations around Russia to encourage voting, educating voters about pertinent issues and about voting violations, so citizens can monitor and report electoral irregularities. This development not only reflects increasing citizen involvement in Russia, but also suggests an increasingly savvy public that wants substance more than traditional slogans. At the same time, however, a September 1999 Anti-Defamation League survey found that Russian respondents with higher education were no less likely than the general public to exhibit anti-Semitic attitudes.

Russia has a long road to travel toward true democracy—a path that must include the protection of the rights of all citizens, enforcement of laws safeguarding human rights, full prosecution of those committing hate crimes, and timely official condemnation of appeals to ethnic hatred and fear. Given the probable composition of the next Duma, this process will remain incomplete for the foreseeable future.

If you have questions or would like further information about the Duma elections, please contact NCSJ Program Assistant Dana Steinberg, (dsteinberg@ncsj.org).